quinta-feira, 3 de janeiro de 2013

Conselho de Segurança: nova candidatura

Paulo Portas revelou hoje que Portugal vai apresentar uma nova candidatura ao Conselho de Segurança (CS) da ONU para o biénio de 2027/2028. Sim, leram bem, em 2013 os países lançam candidaturas para o CS da ONU a 15/20 anos de distância, o que revela bem como são apetecidos aqueles lugares.
José Amaral, Sara Martins e Rui Macieira, diplomatas do MNE, diziam em 2010 o seguinte sobre esta matéria (no caso ainda sobre a candidatura de 2011/2012) e que vale a pena recuperar:

"A country now looking for a totally empty term would need to submit an application for 2029-2030, almost 18 years before the voting.
Portugal officially launched its candidature early in 2000, 10 years before voting. As we have seen, small and medium countries need to be particularly careful in looking for an empty biennium, to maximize their chances of being elected.
The paradox is that the further in advance a candidature is submitted, the longer the necessary campaign will be. Longer campaigns present greater challenges for small and medium countries, since they have fewer human and material resources at their disposal.
A very long lag between launching and actual voting means that several political cycles may take place, both in the UN electorate in general and in one's competitors. Changes in government pose particular challenges. A change in government is one of the very few (somehow) respectable ways for a country to change its given support. A candidate therefore needs to be particularly aware of changes in government all over the world, both in its own supporters (risk) and non-supporters (opportunity).
But changes in the government of one's competitors also need to be carefully evaluated. Indeed, it is not just foreign policy options and alignments that may change, but also internal policies relevant to the way others see that country (for instance in energy or migration).
These factors tend to benefit big countries. They are better prepared to sustain long term campaigns, based on their superior financial capabilities and vast diplomatic network, which may guarantee first hand information on changes in government and their options all over the world.
Fortunately for small and medium sized countries, there are other trends that counteract these big countries' advantages. As (at least some) big countries try to muster their way into the Security Council with increased frequency, there is an "underdog" factor that benefits small and medium countries.
Smaller countries are also more accustomed to seeking alliances, which they see as an enabling instrument of their external assertiveness, rather than proof of weakness. Bigger countries also tend to be remarkably competitive with each other.
Smaller countries can often count on a measure of support from one or another big country unhappy with overly visible fellow big countries.
If one combines all these factors and adds existing European fault lines, the result is an increased, and increasing, role for allies in these long campaigns."

Recordo que neste momento está em curso a campanha portuguesa para garantir um lugar no Conselho de Direitos Humanos (CDH) da ONU para o triénio de 2014/2017. Portugal já perdeu uma eleição anterior e desta vez não quer falhar (e aparentemente a campanha está a correr bem). Regra geral, depois de uma presença no CS da ONU, os países aproveitam para de seguida marcar presença no CDH. Veremos.
Regressando ainda ao texto acima citado, 2027/2028 será seguramente nesta fase (ainda) uma clean slot. Isto dito, aparentemente já existe pelo menos um candidato no terreno.